Aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the U.S. produce over $230 billion
in consumer goods annually as well providing intangible services such
as clean air and water, reducing pollution, and drought and flood prevention.
Ecosystems also provide the public with venues for recreational opportunities.
In order to sustain the delivery of these goods and services, it is
critical that we can anticipate how natural and human stresses to the
environment will affect the Nation's ecosystems. Ecological forecasts
can be used to predict the effects that biological, chemical, physical,
and human-induced changes will have on ecosystems and their components.
NOAA has recently identified the development of ecological forecasting
capabilities to support ecosystem approaches to management as one of
its highest priorities. CSCOR has been at the forefront of ecological
forecasting since its Coastal Ocean Program established predictive
outcomes as its primary organizing principle for supported research
more than a decade ago. CSCOR is committed to providing resource manager
with the modeling tools and predictive capabilities necessary to support
ecosystem approaches to management. Ecological forecasts (i.e., the
capability to predict the effects and interactions of environmental
variability and anthropogenic stressors on coastal ecosystems, and
the impacts of management actions on ecosystems and coastal economies)
help improve communication between management and science, help set
the scientific priorities to address management concerns, and ultimately
help managers make better decisions.
Ecological forecasting is a driving force in all of CSCOR's current
research programs as described below. It is also an emerging priority
across NOS, as a component of NOS' modeling activities. CSCOR recently
led a substantial effort to prioritize new modeling activities across
NOS, resulting in the following report:
“Establishing National Ocean Service Priorities for Estuarine, Coastal, and Ocean Modeling: Capabilities, Gaps, and Preliminary Prioritization Factors”
In addition to directed research programs, CSCOR has supported workshops and symposia to develop modeling capacity. An example is a series of workshops held in 2006-2007 that focused on assessing
the skill of coupled physical – ecological models. By gaining
understanding of how well a model functions, managers are better able to evaluate and use the model output.
In FY 2004, CSCOR launched a targeted ecological forecasting (EcoFore)
program to solicit collaborative proposals between management agencies
and research institutions to develop predictive capabilities for coastal
ecosystems impacted by natural and anthropogenic stressors (e.g.,
climate change, extreme natural events, pollution, invasive species,
and land and resource use). The EcoFore program intends to continue
to stimulate such work with another call for proposals for FY06. Read More ›
CSCOR's coral reef research programs primarily contribute to the understanding
of coral reef ecosystem function and use the results of their research
to develop predictive tools, such as ecological forecasting models
and data syntheses for decision making, to assist local resource managers
in evaluating ecosystem health as a result of ecological stressors (e.g.
climate change, coastal land-use, invasive species, extreme events,
pollution, etc.). Such tools typically follow alternative management
actions in order to assess and prioritize management strategies. Read More ›
CSCOR has established a research program to look at the response of
ecosystems to long-term variation in climate. Changes in climate can
lead to fluctuations of sea level with a direct effect on coastal lands
as well as changes in the abundance and distribution of valuable fisheries
stocks. One of the goals CSCOR's climate change research is to develop
ecological forecasting models that will help coastal and fisheries
managers design and implement management strategies that will mitigate
the potential impacts of climate change. Read More ›
CSCOR's research on land and resource use facilitates the development
of ecological forecasting models as tools for decision makers, allowing
coastal managers to better predict future environmental conditions
using current conditions and various management scenarios. Timely ecological
forecasts can provide coastal managers with practical information for
better ecosystem management in the face of cumulative impacts of multiple
land use activities. CSCOR projects that currently involve understanding
impacts of land use on coastal ecosystems include a multiple stressor
study in the Barataria watershed
of Louisiana, South
Florida restoration effects on Florida Bay, hypoxia
research in the northern Gulf
of Mexico and other U.S. coastal areas, and the use of fish as
model animals exposure to hazardous environmental contaminants. Read More ›
The variety of harmful algal bloom (HAB) species, their broad geographic
distribution, and the breadth of their impact on different ecosystem
components create complex resource management issues that often require
complex, integrative approaches to address them. A primary focus of
CSCOR's HAB research is the development of e cological forecasts as
integrative predictive tools to assist coastal managers in planning
and implementing management strategies related to HAB events. Read More ›
CSCOR's hypoxia and nutrient pollution research provides results and
predictive tools which enable coastal resource managers to make informed,
proactive, and scientifically based decisions to help mitigate the
impact of these stressors on aquatic ecosystems. Ecological forecasts
using indicators of coastal ecosystem habitat health and sustainability
allow managers to understand how hypoxia and nutrient pollution affect
the structure and function of coastal ecosystems and evaluate the effectiveness
of mitigation and restoration strategies.