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While SLR projections are valuable as a general indicator, how will these projections translate, together with possible changes of storm activities, into future coastal erosion rates? The goal of our team is enhancing managers' ability to analyze and use climate relevant information in their decision making through sustained science- decision makers interactions. Manager input has been an important part of the CSCOR North Carolina Sea Level Rise program from the beginning of planning. North Carolina managers were involved in:
By making coastal and floodplain development more resistant to storms and flooding, state and local governments must use conscious planning to increase society's resilience in face of change. One choice for future planning is a goal of “low regrets”. Low Regrets proponents encourage decision makers to incorporate safety buffers in the course of regular infrastructure upgrading and maintenance such as replacement of sewer pipes and long term development planning and siting. For example, decision makers can account for more extreme run off and higher sea levels in the case where present day weather extremes cause damages and during recovery period. Opportunities may exist to rebuild in a way that is informed by the possibility of climate change (Luers, 2006).
Sea level rise is slowly progressing, long term, common place and, by itself, is rather unspectacular. Thus this largely invisible problem is hard to separate from or perceived as merely aggravating other more apparent coastal processes such as coastal erosion flooding, or salt water intrusion
Currently planning for episodic/short-term events, such as coastal storms, is better than for long-term gradual processes. Long term change impacts are often ignored and the impacts of and responses to slow-onset and slowly progressing threats tend to be under-studied (Moser, 2005). However, since climate change will exacerbate many existing resource management risks, even in the short term, climate is likely to aggravate conditions.
There is a growing recognition in the scientific literature of the importance of viewing climate change within the context of multiple interacting stressors. Thus, state and local governments need to integrate or “mainstream” climate risk into ongoing decision and management processes (IPCC, 2001b). By focusing on manager's information needs, with the help of scientific input, state and local governments should take climate and projections of a higher sea level rise into account when making decisions for development, planning, and supporting diverse economic activity in the coastal zone.
Societal responses to global change entail the largest uncertainty. All experts agree that the greatest unknowns are embedded in the human dynamics leading to vulnerabilities and various responses (mitigation and adaptation) (Moser, 2005).
Uncertainties can be viewed as obstacles and even those who want to start planning— decision making and proactive planning for climate change would prefer location specific and temporally more resolved and more reliable data. Scientists must know the specific management information needed. Translation is needed of projected SLR and changes in coastal ocean and wave climate into shoreline retreat, beach erosion and bluff retreat to help determine set back distances.
Long term changes can result in adjustment to coastal landform that are not anticipated by local users even though they may accept short term variation as the norm (Penthick, 2001). Thus, as a general rule, no-hardening rules and improved planning along estuarine shorelines have not been put in place or strictly enforced in US to assure the viability of estuaries and the ability of coastal wetlands to move landward as SL rises (Moser, 2005). Wetland losses in Louisiana, Maryland and other places in the Gulf region and mid Atlantic have been attributed in part to sea level rise (Burkett, 2000)
However, it is starting to be recognized by planners that severe loss of shore front development and coastal habitats can only be avoided or postponed through rules that recognize a changing shoreline— set back regulations if founded on a moving baseline (periodically remapped) in combination with a retreat policy can postpone the effects of SLR.
Although the presently we don't know the exact extent of SLR is still tentative, and more research is needed into the mechanisms and impacts lf accelerated sealevel is needed, it can be stated that many coastal areas run high risks when no planning measures are taken in the short run. Climate change is making the existing statistics on expected high water levels and storm events less reliable and even if weather statistics remain unchanged the impact of storm surges will increases due to slr.
If an area fails to consider the response options with a long lead time, it will leave future generations with a more limited range of options to choose from. Because some response options both technical and institutional take decades to become fully effective (Vellinga and Klein, 1993).