Sea Level rise example

You are here: CSCOR Home › Stressors › Climate Change › Current Projects › Sea Level Rise- North Carolina Pilot Project › UNC- Institute Of Marine Sciences

UNC- Institute Of Marine Sciences

Modeling habitat-specific impacts of sea-level rise on estuarine production as a function of shoreline management alternatives

  1. Landscape (see maps for our study location, ECU, USC and all 3 groups)
    • Estuarine intertidal
    • Saltmarsh
    • Seagrass
    • Oyster
    • Flat
    • Hardened shoreline
  2. Tidal regimes
    Approximately 1 meter for our study area
  3. Who is doing it?
    • PIs — Pete Peterson, Mike Piehler, Rick Luettich — UNC-CH Institute of Marine Sciences; Chris Buzzelli NOAA Charleston
    • Post-doc — Melisa Wong
    • Technicians — Suzanne Thompson

  4. What are you doing? (see figure)
    Developing a habitat simulation model linked to the NOS coastal flooding model that will be used to forecast the effects of increased RSLR, variable water levels, and shoreline stabilization on the productivity of unvegetated sub-tidal, SAV, inter-tidal flat, oyster reef, and marsh habitats in Bogue Sound

    Generating a map series of the sampling/modeling domain that depicts baseline habitat distribution, baseline biogeochemical and trophic characteristics, and spatially distributed forecasts from different model scenarios

  5. How is it useful to coastal managers, planner (see matrix and habitat switching figure)
    The products will include short- and long-term predictions of the functioning of estuarine habitats through different scenarios of water level rise and shoreline modifications.

    Stakeholders will have access to the maps and habitat model results. This will permit some level of forecasting of the impacts on estuarine habitats

    There will be value for fisheries stakeholders, coastal planners and other coastal professionals who make decisions about activities in an around the coastline

    Ecosystem effects of shoreline stabilization:
    Few data on impacts, likely impacts include:
    • altered physical variables (boundaries, depth and tidal range, wave energy, light regime)
    • different biogeochemical signatures (primary production, remineralization)
    • changes in trophic attributes (secondary production)

  6. Time line- when will it be finished?

    Preliminary habitat models will be completed in late winter 2007

    Baseline maps are currently being refined (see map for an example)

    We have completed a field season of data gathering for model calibration

    We are on schedule to complete our proposed work by October 2008

  7. Products list

Manuscripts

3 manuscripts in preparation (1 Piehler et al. and 2 Peterson et al.)

Abstracts

Mattheus, C.R., Rodriguez, A.B., Piehler, M.F., and Currin, C.A. , 2006, Subsurface controls on short- and long-term fringing marsh evolution: comparison of coastal settings along the central Atlantic Coast, Carteret County , NC: Geological Society of America annual meeting, abstracts with programs, Vol. 38 (7)

Piehler, M., Currin, C., Grabowski, J, Rodriguez, A., and Wong, M., 2006, Forecasting the impacts of rising sea level on coastal fringing marshes: implications for ecosystem management, The Society of Wetland Scientists 27th International Conference and the Australian Marine Sciences Association 44th Annual Meeting, Program and Abstracts.

Piehler is co-chairing a session at the 10th International Symposium on Wetland Biogeochemistry entitled “Losing ground? Impacts of sea level rise on the biogeochemistry of tidal marshes”