Extreme natural events such as hurricanes and “red
tides” or
Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) can pose particular risks to coastal
oceans and communities. Better forecasting and monitoring methods are
critical to protecting human health and lives and to lessening the
trauma to coastal communities. Strong winds and waves associated with
storms, for instance, can degrade habitats by altering freshwater flow
and nutrient concentrations. They can also lead to more pollution as
a result of increased runoff. Storms appeared to have a significant
effect on the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. CSCOR's GoMEX program
sponsored researchers in Louisiana that found the hypoxic “dead
zone” to be half the size of the usual summer average for the past ten
years, likely the result of two large storms that recently had passed through
the area. In addition, a team of NOS-supported scientists worked to improve
ecological forecasting capabilities, leading in 2003 to the first-ever NCCOS
forecast of the dead zone off the Louisiana and Texas coasts. These recent
ecological modeling improvements have also indicated that nutrient load reductions
beyond those suggested by the current Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating,
and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico may be necessary
to achieve the management goal of reducing the dead zone by two-thirds. These
new modeling capabilities are examples of the leading edge of ecological forecasting,
a growing NOAA capability critical to coastal management decisions..
Weather also may influence the frequency, severity, and duration of
HABs due to the increase in nutrient runoff from land. These events
occur in the waters of nearly every coastal and Great Lakes state,
and HABs have been responsible for an estimated $1 billion in economic
losses over the past few decades. Furthermore, HABs can damage the
health of people and marine organisms and harm local and regional economies.
These blooms have decimated the scallop fishery in Long Island’s
estuaries (see Brown Tide Fact Sheet) and have led to seasonal closures
of various shellfisheries on Georges Bank, from North Carolina to Louisiana,
and throughout the Pacific Northwest. They may also have contributed
to deaths of hundreds of manatees in Florida, sea lions in California,
and other marine mammals, including dolphins in the Northern Gulf of
Mexico. HABs have also caused significant respiratory
and other illnesses in coastal residents and vacationers. CSCOR's
improved methods for forecasting and monitoring for HABs and other
extreme natural events are protecting human health and lessening the
trauma that coastal communities experience.