NOAA Forecast Predicts Large "Dead Zone" for Gulf of Mexico this Summer. View the press release
TASK FORCE APPROVES ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN
The Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task for has officially approved its annual operating plan for fiscal year 2009 (October 2008-September 2009). The annual operating plan, which specifically implements one of the eleven actions in the 2008 Action Plan, includes, if known, funding levels and specific milestones for the current fiscal year. The annual operating plan and the 2008 Action Plan can be found on the newly redesigned Task Force website: http://www.epa.gov/msbasin/index.htm
MEASUREMENT OF DEAD ZONE
The official size of the dead zone, as measured by National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s (NCCOS) Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR)-supported scientists from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) is 20,721 km2, the second largest since measurements began in 1985. This represents a land area greater than the state of Massachusetts, and is slightly lower than forecast predictions. Over the past 5 years, the Dead Zone has averaged 17,010 km2, substantially larger then the interagency Gulf of Mexico/Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task force goal of reducing the Zone to 5,000 km2.
The difference between the observed and predicted size can be attributed to Hurricane Dolly. Winds and waves associated with outer bands of the hurricane re-aerated parts of the bottom waters in portions of the Dead Zone just before measurements were taken, especially near shore and along its western edge. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) groundfish surveys (SEAMAP/Hypoxia Watch project) conducted prior to the LUMCON cruise found widespread hypoxia that extended well into Texas waters, confirming that the Dead Zone area was reduced substantially by Hurricane Dolly.
click here for NOAA press release
click here for Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) press release
The final forecast by NOAA-supported scientists from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) and Louisiana State University (LSU) predicts Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” will measure 8,800 square miles (22,792 km2). This forecast predicts possibly the largest Dead Zone on record, provided it is not disrupted by strong storms this summer. NOAA-supported scientists at the University of Michigan also predict a large hypoxic area between 8,300 and 8,700 square miles (21,497 - 22,533 km2). Using nutrient loadings data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey, these large dead zone forecasts are due to a combination of high flows and high nitrogen concentrations which together have produced a very high nutrient load to the Gulf. The annual summer measurement of the Dead Zone, which provides the benchmark for assessing progress towards the goals of the Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan, is slated to begin on July 20, 2008.
click here for NOAA press release
click here for LUMCON/LSU forecast hypoxia forecast
click here for University of Michigan hypoxia forecast
PRELIMINARY FORECAST OF DEAD ZONE ISSUED
A preliminary Gulf of Mexico "Dead Zone" forecast has been released from Louisiana State University (LSU). This forecast predicts the possibility of the largest Dead Zone ever in the GUlf of Mexico, provided hypoxia is not disrupted by strong storms this summer. This is due to a combination of high flows and high nitrogen concentrations which together have produced a very high nutrient load to the Gulf. The official forecast will come out in July, when official nutrient loading data are available from the U.S Geological Survey (USGS). TO view the press release about the preliminary forecast click here.
The Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force will formally release the 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan during a signing ceremony and meeting on June 16, 2008 in New Orleans, LA. Completing a multi-step scientific reassessment of the 2001 Action Plan, this ceremony will afford an opportunity for media engagement and feature comments by Task Force members. The Task Force will also continue its commitment for maximum stakeholder and public engagement through a dedicated public session that will be held the following day, on June 17, 2008. For more information see the current newsflash about the event.
The Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force has formally approved the language of its updated Action Plan. A formal roll out of the Action Plan is anticipated in early summer.
Following the completion of a public comment period, the Gulf of Mexico/Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task Force is currently reviewing over 600 comments on the draft 2008 Action Plan. The Task Force anticipates finalizing the 2008 Action Plan during its 16th meeting in Chicago, IL on February 29-30, 2008. In addition, the Task Force also intends to finalize an annual operating plan, aimed at increasing specificity and accountability of actions.
The Gulf of Mexico/Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task Force has released a draft of the 2008 Action Plan for pubic comment. In the draft 2008 Action Plan, the Task Force will “strive to reduce or make significant progress” towards the 2001 Action Plan goal of reducing the size of the hypoxic zone to 5,000 km2 by 2015. It was concluded during the reassessment process that reductions of at least 45% in both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs would be required to meet the 5,000 km2 goal. The draft 2008 Action Plan continues its focus on voluntary actions, but seeks to include greater specificity and accountability through the identification of State or Federal entities responsible for the execution of each action. The public comment period for the draft ends on January 4, 2007 and stakeholders and the public with interests in the Gulf of Mexico are encouraged to participate. NOAA has been a key player in facilitating management policy progress for the northern Gulf ecosystem for over a decade as well as the major force determining priorities for, and funding of, research to inform the largest interagency ecosystem management effort in the Nation.
The scientific basis to update the Action Plan took a significant step forward following two public meetings during the week of 12-16 June 2007 in New Orleans. The 14th meeting of the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force convened on June 12-13 2007 and preceded a meeting of the EPA Science Advisory Board Hypoxia Advisory Panel. The HAP presented a draft advisory report to the Task Force and its Coordinating Committee which included recommendations for maintaining the current hypoxic zone goal of 5,000 km2 by 2015 and for developing reduction strategies for both phosphorus and nitrogen. Based on these recommendations, and incorporating new Task Force-approved thematic areas of focus (e.g. biofuel-driven changes in agriculture, reauthorization of the Farm Bill, lower basin wetland restoration and water diversion, greater specificity and accountability in management actions, etc.), the Task Force is developing an updated Action Plan that will articulate a more specific management strategy to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf and improve water quality in the Mississippi River Basin. At their 15th meeting on October 29-30, 2007, the Task Force will review a draft of the updated Action Plan which is scheduled to be completed in early-2008. NOAA has been a key player in facilitating management policy progress for the northern Gulf ecosystem for over a decade as well as the major force determining priorities for, and funding of, research to inform the largest interagency ecosystem management effort in the Nation.
